The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA/NASS) has released its November 1, 2025 Cotton Production Report, providing an updated look at the nation’s cotton outlook. While national yields continue to climb, several key states in the Southeast are experiencing noticeable declines in overall cotton production.
USDA NASS statistician Becky Sommer shared the newest data, highlighting major adjustments from earlier projections and important year-over-year comparisons.
National Cotton Production Trends
Higher Yields but Slightly Lower Total Output
According to the updated report, total U.S. cotton production is estimated at 14.1 million 480-pound bales. This reflects a 7% increase from the previous forecast but remains 2% lower than the 2024 crop.
Sommer explained that as of November 1, the average national yield is projected to reach 919 pounds per harvested acre, which is:
- 58 pounds higher than earlier estimates
- 33 pounds above last year’s results
Meanwhile, the harvested area remains steady at 7.37 million acres, unchanged from the prior forecast but down 6% from 2024.
These numbers show that improved late-season growing conditions helped lift national productivity, even though harvested acreage continues to shrink.
Southeast Cotton Production Declines
State-Specific Forecasts Reveal Regional Challenges
Despite national improvements, several southeastern states are facing significant cuts in cotton output.
Sommer outlined the following projections:
- Georgia: 1.70 million bales — 12% below last year
- Alabama: 560,000 bales — 17% lower than 2024
- Florida: 100,000 bales — a 16% decline from last season
These reductions highlight issues such as erratic weather patterns, early-season crop stress, and shrinking harvested acreage. Georgia, a major cotton-producing state, shows the steepest drop, and similar downward trends in Alabama and Florida deepen the Southeast’s overall production decline.
Reasons Behind the Regional Downturn
Weather, Crop Conditions, and Acreage Reductions
The weaker outlook for southeastern cotton stems from several factors:
- Weather disruptions during key growth periods
- Variable crop performance across affected counties
- Reduced harvested acreage, especially in drought-prone areas
- Inconsistent rainfall, affecting boll development and quality
These combined challenges contributed to the notable production drop across the region, despite improving conditions in other parts of the country.
National Strength Offsets Regional Weakness
Improved Yields Show Resilience in U.S. Cotton
Even with the Southeast’s decline, the overall national increase in yield demonstrates strong resilience among cotton-producing regions outside the southeastern corridor. Many western and central states benefited from more stable weather and better late-season development, helping boost the nationwide average.
As the cotton industry digests the updated data, market observers—including growers, ginners, traders, and analysts—will closely track late-season conditions and anticipate the more detailed December report, which will finalize the 2025 outlook.