The USDA released its November Crop Production and WASDE updates after the federal shutdown delayed the October reports. The latest numbers show slightly lower yields for corn and soybeans, mixed stock estimates, and weaker projections for the U.S. cattle and hog markets.
The USDA trimmed corn yields to 186 bushels per acre (bpa) and reduced national production to 16.75 billion bushels. Soybean yields were also adjusted downward to 53 bpa, bringing total output to 4.253 billion bushels. Wheat production remained steady, though ending stocks increased compared to earlier estimates.
Overall, analysts noted a bearish outlook for corn and wheat, with soybeans showing a more neutral to mildly supportive trend.
Corn Market Update
Corn Yield and Production Changes
USDA’s latest estimate places the national corn yield at 186 bpa, a slight reduction of 0.7 bpa from September. Despite the decrease, the figure still came in above trade expectations.
Total 2025–26 corn production now stands at 16.752 billion bushels, down 62 million bushels from the previous estimate. This still exceeds the 2023–24 record of 15.34 billion bushels.
- Planted acres: 98.7 million
- Harvested acres: 90 million
Corn Demand and Usage
USDA’s demand estimates include:
- Feed and residual use: 6.1 billion bushels
- Ethanol production use: 5.6 billion bushels
- Total domestic use: 13.08 billion bushels
- Exports: 3.075 billion bushels (up 100 million from September)
Exports were the only demand category that saw an increase.
Ending Stocks and Prices
USDA raised old-crop stocks by 207 million bushels, pushing 2025–26 beginning stocks to 1.532 billion bushels.
Final ending stocks moved up to 2.154 billion bushels, a rise of 44 million bushels.
The farmgate price outlook increased by 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel.
Global Corn Picture
Worldwide projections include:
- Beginning stocks: 291.66 mmt (up 7.48 mmt)
- Production: 1,286.23 mmt
- Global exports: 203.47 mmt
- Ending stocks: 281.34 mmt
For South America:
- Brazil’s 2024–25 production: 136 mmt
- Argentina’s production: 50 mmt
Soybean Market Update
Soybean Yield and Production
USDA reduced the national soybean yield to 53 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa.
Total soybean production is now estimated at 4.253 billion bushels, a drop from 4.301 billion.
Key supply numbers:
- Beginning stocks: 316 mb
- Imports: 20 mb
- Total supplies: 4.590 bb
Soybean Demand
Updated demand projections include:
- Crush: 2.555 bb
- Exports: 1.635 bb (down from 1.685 bb)
- Residual use: 37 mb
- Seed: 73 mb
Ending stocks were slightly reduced to 290 mb, while total use stands at 4.3 bb.
The farmgate price rose from $10.00 to $10.50.
Global Soybean Outlook
Worldwide ending stocks for 2025–26 are estimated at 121.99 mmt, down from September.
Brazil and Argentina soybean output projections remain unchanged at 175 mmt and 48.5 mmt, respectively.
Wheat Market Update
U.S. Wheat Production and Stocks
Wheat production remains unchanged at 1.985 billion bushels, consistent with the Small Grains report.
Ending stocks increased from 844 mb to 901 mb, reflecting higher carryover.
- Exports: 900 mb (unchanged)
- Farmgate price: Reduced from $5.10 to $5.00
Global Wheat Production
World wheat ending stocks for the 2024–25 cycle rose to 271.43 mmt.
Major producers saw increases:
- Argentina: 22 mmt
- Australia: 36 mmt
- Russia: 86.5 mmt
- EU: 142.3 mmt
Livestock Market Update
Cattle and Beef Outlook
USDA’s report paints a weaker outlook for the beef sector:
- 2025 beef production down 70 million pounds
- 2026 production lowered by 100 million pounds
- Slower slaughter speeds expected through mid-2026
- Steer price forecasts:
- Q4 2025: $234 (down $10)
- Q1 2026: $242 (down $5)
- Q2 2026: $248 (down $3)
Hog and Pork Outlook
Similar downward trends appear in the pork sector:
- 2025 production lowered by 80 million pounds
- 2026 production also cut due to light inventories
- Hog price forecasts:
- Q4 2025: $66 (down $3)
- Q1 2026: $65 (unchanged)
- Q2 2026: $70 (unchanged)
Pork imports increased by 10 million pounds, while exports stayed the same.
Key U.S. Production Table (2025–26)
| Category | Nov Estimate | Sep Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Corn Production (bb) | 16.752 | 16.814 |
| Soybean Production (bb) | 4.253 | 4.301 |
| Wheat Ending Stocks (mb) | 901 | 844 |
| Corn Ending Stocks (mb) | 2,154 | 2,110 |
| Soybean Ending Stocks (mb) | 290 | 300 |